U.S. civilian labor force participation rate
This market has horizons that resolve independently. Each horizon resolves to the annual-average U.S. civilian labor force participation rate for that calendar year.
The groups resolve to calendar years 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050. Each group uses the 12 monthly seasonally adjusted BLS readings from January through December of that year. A threshold resolves YES if that year's annual average is at least the threshold, and NO otherwise.
Resolution uses BLS series LNS11300000 / FRED CIVPART, or the most directly comparable official successor series. If BLS or FRED later revises or updates the relevant data, Antistatic may re-resolve using the updated official data.
The starting probabilities of this market were calculated by simulating 150,000 possible annual-average U.S. labor force participation readings, then reading off the simulated value in 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050. This is a point-in-year market: it is asking for the participation rate in that specific calendar year, not the lowest rate reached before then.
The current anchor is the FRED/BLS CIVPART reading of 61.9% for March 2026. The official demographic baseline is downward but not catastrophic: BLS's 2024-2034 projection has total LFPR falling from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% in 2034. CBO's 2026-2056 demographic outlook projects an older population, with slower population growth and more of the population over age 65.
Demographic mechanics
Aging pushes the aggregate LFPR down because older people participate less than prime-age workers. BLS projects the civilian noninstitutional population share age 55 and older rising from 37.6% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2034, and the 75+ share rising from 9.2% to 12.5% (BLS Table 3.2). That is a real headwind, but it is not enough by itself to make sub-50% LFPR likely by 2030. Sub-50% outcomes in this model mainly come from a fast, broad labor-displacement scenario rather than ordinary aging alone.
Model mechanics
- No-AI demographic/labor baseline: five 2050 paths are mixed: 27% official aging with longevity offsets, 25% recent downward drift persists, 25% weaker labor attachment, 15% sharp demographic/institutional downside, and 8% high-participation reform.
- AI displacement: the terminal LFPR drop has scenario weights of 22% minimal, 24% moderate, 27% large, 19% severe, and 8% radical but still resolving-world. The AI effect is allowed to begin before 2030 and ramp over several years.
- Business-cycle noise: each target year includes ordinary survey/economic variation, a roughly one-in-eight recession shock, and a small chance of a larger pandemic-like labor-supply shock.
The AI component is heavier-tailed than the official baseline and somewhat more aggressive than the median rapid-AI result in the recent Karger et al. survey on AI's economic effects. That survey supports meaningful downside risk for LFPR in rapid-AI worlds, while the market model here gives additional weight to faster substitution and weaker labor attachment.
Simulated distribution
| Year | 10th pct. | 25th pct. | Median | 75th pct. | 90th pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 42.4% | 52.1% | 57.9% | 60.3% | 61.2% |
| 2035 | 26.8% | 41.4% | 51.1% | 56.6% | 59.5% |
| 2040 | 24.4% | 38.9% | 48.8% | 54.8% | 58.4% |
| 2045 | 22.5% | 36.8% | 47.0% | 53.5% | 57.6% |
| 2050 | 20.6% | 34.8% | 45.2% | 52.4% | 57.0% |
Selected starting probabilities
| Threshold | 2030 P(LFPR >= threshold) | 2035 P(LFPR >= threshold) | 2040 P(LFPR >= threshold) | 2045 P(LFPR >= threshold) | 2050 P(LFPR >= threshold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 98.5% | 93.9% | 92.7% | 91.6% | 90.4% |
| 30% | 96.3% | 87.4% | 85.3% | 83.6% | 81.5% |
| 40% | 91.7% | 77.0% | 73.3% | 69.3% | 64.8% |
| 45% | 87.4% | 67.7% | 62.0% | 56.4% | 50.8% |
| 50% | 79.5% | 53.5% | 45.8% | 39.1% | 33.6% |
| 55% | 65.6% | 33.1% | 24.3% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| 58% | 49.3% | 17.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% |
| 60% | 28.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| 61% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| 62% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
These starting probabilities are conditional on Antistatic and the official LFPR data process existing well enough for resolution. Extinction, permanent platform failure, and no-data scenarios are not assigned numerical LFPR outcomes.
Liquidity over time
i Shows the market’s available liquidity over time. Liquidity can decay continuously and may change discretely if liquidity adjustments are applied.Loading…
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