Time for US military to exit from Iran, after 1,000 troops are deployed

This market measures elapsed time from the first qualifying deployment in 2026 to the end of U.S. ground-force involvement in Iran.

A qualifying deployment is the first point in 2026 when the United States has ≥1,000 U.S. troops on Iranian sovereign territory or at fixed installations in Iran. Aircraft overflight, offshore naval presence, and strikes launched from outside Iran do not count toward this deployment threshold.

End of ground-force involvement means U.S. ground troops have vacated Iranian territory and fixed installations, and do not return within 365 days.

If troops return within 365 days, the earlier "end" is void and submarkets will be re-resolved accordingly. If no return occurs for more than 365 days, the prior involvement-end resolutions stand.

Evidence priority is: (1) official U.S. or Iranian statements/documents; (2) AP/Reuters/AFP reporting; (3) high-confidence open-source reporting with named sourcing and clear documentary or visual evidence.

If a qualifying ≥1,000-troop U.S. deployment in Iran does not occur during 2026, the market closes unresolved.