Nebius annual revenue

v1 (2026-03-06) current

Calculation of starting probabilities

This market uses a three-level revenue model for Nebius's non-cumulative annual revenue over FY2026-FY2035. The model combines: (1) Nebius-specific execution signals, (2) a comparable cloud-platform reference class, and (3) a general firm-growth base rate from the academic literature so the forecast does not naively extrapolate one explosive year forever.

Resolved anchor from the last completed financial year: Nebius reported $529.8m of FY2025 revenue versus a recast FY2024 continuing-operations revenue of $91.5m, which is +479% year over year. That value is included here as a calibration aid; the market itself stays in revenue units only.

Key charts

Nebius annual revenue forecast bands

Nebius reference classes and growth-path decomposition

Why these reference classes

Nebius-specific: FY2025 revenue, year-end ARR of about $1.25bn, FY2026 end-year ARR guidance of $7bn-$9bn, the Microsoft agreement announced in December 2025, and disclosed power-capacity targets (800MW-1GW active in 2026; more than 3GW contracted).
Broad cloud/platform cohort: Cloudflare, DigitalOcean, Datadog, and Snowflake. Their observed mean annual log-growth in the sample used here is about 32%, which prevents the model from treating Nebius as a generic mature company too early.
AI-infrastructure uplift: CoreWeave is used as the direct AI-cloud analogue, but only after strong shrinkage. Its raw growth history is much hotter (mean about 587%), so the model only takes a partial, decaying uplift from that reference class to reduce single-comparable bias.
Companies in general: the academic literature says firm growth shocks are heavy-tailed, high growth is rarely persistent forever, and volatility falls with size. That is why the simulation uses fat-tailed shocks and size-scaled volatility instead of a smooth deterministic curve.

Model structure

Global layer: long-run revenue growth mean-reverts toward a modest positive floor, with shock volatility shrinking roughly with firm size.
Sector layer: Nebius inherits a broad-cloud growth premium estimated from comparable public firms, plus a shrunk AI-infrastructure uplift that decays as the market matures.
Company layer: FY2026 is anchored to ARR guidance and deployment timing. The residual company-specific growth premium then decays faster than the sector premium.
Simulation: 80,000 Monte Carlo paths produce yearly revenue samples, and each year's market ladder is the survival curve P(revenue >= threshold) at 50 friendly-rounded thresholds.

Forecast summary

Fiscal year	Median	P10	P90
FY2026	$2.3bn	$1.2bn	$4.3bn
FY2027	$5.0bn	$2.0bn	$11.7bn
FY2028	$8.1bn	$3.0bn	$21.3bn
FY2029	$11.4bn	$3.9bn	$31.6bn
FY2030	$14.8bn	$4.8bn	$42.7bn
FY2031	$18.2bn	$5.7bn	$54.4bn
FY2032	$21.7bn	$6.6bn	$66.8bn
FY2033	$25.4bn	$7.4bn	$79.7bn
FY2034	$29.3bn	$8.3bn	$93.8bn
FY2035	$33.3bn	$9.1bn	$109.1bn

Source notes

Nebius FY2025 results: FY2025 revenue of $529.8m and recast FY2024 revenue of $91.5m.
Nebius Q3 2025 shareholder letter: year-end ARR of about $1.25bn, FY2026 end-year ARR guidance of $7bn-$9bn, and power-capacity targets.
Nebius-Microsoft agreement: direct evidence that the company has unusually strong near-term demand support.
Stanley et al. (1996) and Bottazzi & Secchi (2006): motivation for fat-tailed growth shocks and size-sensitive volatility.
World Bank high-growth firms review: motivation for mean reversion and caution about assuming repeated hypergrowth episodes.