Date China takes major military action against Taiwan – By Dec 2036

This market resolves to the earliest date at which any of the following conditions is reported by at least two of AP, Reuters, and AFP:
(a) at least 1,000 People's Liberation Army military personnel have been deployed to the main island of Taiwan for the purpose of establishing PRC sovereignty;
(b) the People's Republic of China has imposed a blockade that closes all major Taiwanese ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei) for at least 10 consecutive days; or
(c) the People's Republic of China has launched kinetic strikes (missiles, airstrikes, or naval bombardment) against military or civilian infrastructure on the main island of Taiwan.

Exclusions: military exercises that do not actively intercept traffic or strike targets; cyber-only operations; actions limited to outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) without action against the main island; economic sanctions or trade restrictions without physical military action.