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Date China takes major military action against Taiwan – By Dec 2036
This market resolves to the earliest date at which any of the following conditions is reported by at least two of AP, Reuters, and AFP:
(a) at least 1,000 People's Liberation Army military personnel have been deployed to the main island of Taiwan for the purpose of establishing PRC sovereignty;
(b) the People's Republic of China has imposed a blockade that closes all major Taiwanese ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei) for at least 10 consecutive days; or
(c) the People's Republic of China has launched kinetic strikes (missiles, airstrikes, or naval bombardment) against military or civilian infrastructure on the main island of Taiwan.
Exclusions: military exercises that do not actively intercept traffic or strike targets; cyber-only operations; actions limited to outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) without action against the main island; economic sanctions or trade restrictions without physical military action.
(a) at least 1,000 People's Liberation Army military personnel have been deployed to the main island of Taiwan for the purpose of establishing PRC sovereignty;
(b) the People's Republic of China has imposed a blockade that closes all major Taiwanese ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei) for at least 10 consecutive days; or
(c) the People's Republic of China has launched kinetic strikes (missiles, airstrikes, or naval bombardment) against military or civilian infrastructure on the main island of Taiwan.
Exclusions: military exercises that do not actively intercept traffic or strike targets; cyber-only operations; actions limited to outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) without action against the main island; economic sanctions or trade restrictions without physical military action.
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